Population Projections for the R.O.C. (Taiwan)

The NDC prepares new long-range population projections once every two years. They take account of the latest fertility, mortality and migration situations, and are provided for open reference and use.

Although policies relating to national development mostly have a long-range perspective of 10 years, countries around the world usually produce population projections for 30-50 years into the future. This is because the size and age structure of the population in the next generation depends on the numbers for fertility, mortality and migration in the present generation, and the longer range projections are made to inform us how the birthrate in the current generation will change the age structure of the next generation from childhood to old age. Some countries even make projections for 100 years ahead, to track the age structure of the future population under specific scenarios of stable growth. The NDC has given consideration to the timeframe of other countries’ population projections, and has decided to run the latest projections up to 2070 so that they are comparable to indicators relating to future population in the international sphere.

1. The figures for population, fertility, mortality and migration in this report refer to R.O.C. citizens who reside in and have established household registration in Taiwan. They include foreign nationals who have obtained household registration status in Taiwan, but do not include foreigners who reside in Taiwan for work or study.
2. Because Taiwan’s official statistics for population, labor, etc., use the population with household registration as their statistical subjects, important demographic indicators such as the fertility rate, aging index, and unemployment rate, do not include foreigners who stay in Taiwan for work or study. Though our country’s census data furnishes statistics on the population actually living in the country (i.e., the resident population), the frequency of its update is just once in ten years, so the data loses contemporaneity. Furthermore, in order to be able to use historic data for conducting comparison and trend analysis, and to avoid producing inconsistencies with the statistical subjects of common population indicators, the NDC’s population projections also correspondingly use as subjects R.O.C. citizens who reside in and have established household registration in Taiwan.